Logo image
Computational methods for Bayesian inference in macroeconomic models
Dissertation   Open access

Computational methods for Bayesian inference in macroeconomic models

Ingvar Strid
Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics (EFI)
Doctor of Philosophy (PHD), Stockholm School of Economics
2010

Abstract

The New Macroeconometrics may succinctly be described as the application of Bayesian analysis to the class of macroeconomic models called Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. A prominent local example from this research area is the development and estimation of the RAMSES model, the main macroeconomic model in use at Sveriges Riksbank. Bayesian estimation of DSGE models is often computationally demanding. In this thesis fast algorithms for Bayesian inference are developed and tested in the context of the state space model framework implied by DSGE models. The algorithms discussed in the thesis deal with evaluation of the DSGE model likelihood function and sampling from the posterior distribution. Block Kalman filter algorithms are suggested for likelihood evaluation in large linearised DSGE models. Parallel particle filter algorithms are presented for likelihood evaluation in nonlinearly approximated DSGE models. Prefetching random walk Metropolis algorithms and adaptive hybrid sampling algorithms are suggested for posterior sampling. The generality of the algorithms, however, suggest that they should be of interest also outside the realm of macroeconometrics.
pdf
2010_ETDDoctoral_Fulltext_Strid_Ingvar_ComputationalMethodsForBayesianInferenceInMacroeconomicModels1.48 MBDownloadView
PDF Open Access
pdf
2010_ETDDoctoral_Cover_Strid_Ingvar_ComputationalMethodsForBayesianInferenceInMacroeconomicModels136.46 kBDownloadView
PDF (supplemental) Open Access
pdf
2010_ETDDoctoral_DefenseNotice_Strid_Ingvar_ComputationalMethodsForBayesianInferenceInMacroeconomicModels97.20 kBDownloadView
PDF (supplemental) Open Access

Metrics

83 File views/ downloads
58 Record Views

Details

Logo image