Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

Tomislav Pavlović; Flavio Azevedo; Koustav De; Julián C Riaño-Moreno; Marina Maglić; Theofilos Gkinopoulos; Patricio Andreas Donnelly-Kehoe; César Payán-Gómez; Guanxiong Huang; Jaroslaw Kantorowicz; Michèle D Birtel; Philipp Schönegger; Valerio Capraro; Hernando Santamaría-García; Meltem Yucel; Agustin Ibanez; Steve Rathje; Erik Wetter; Dragan Stanojević; Jan-Willem van Prooijen; Eugenia Hesse; Christian T Elbaek; Renata Franc; Zoran Pavlović; Panagiotis Mitkidis; Aleksandra Cichocka; Michele Gelfand; Mark Alfano; Robert M Ross; Hallgeir Sjåstad; John B Nezlek; Aleksandra Cislak; Patricia Lockwood; Koen Abts; Elena Agadullina; David M Amodio; Matthew A J Apps; John Jamir Benzon Aruta; Sahba Besharati; Alexander Bor; Becky Choma; William Cunningham; Waqas Ejaz; Harry Farmer; Andrej Findor; Biljana Gjoneska; Estrella Gualda; Toan L D Huynh; Mostak Ahamed Imran; Jacob Israelashvili; Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko; André Krouwel; Yordan Kutiyski; Michael Laakasuo; Claus Lamm; Jonathan Levy; Caroline Leygue; Ming-Jen Lin; Mohammad Sabbir Mansoor; Antoine Marie; Lewend Mayiwar; Honorata Mazepus; Cillian McHugh; Andreas Olsson; Tobias Otterbring; Dominic Packer; Jussi Palomäki; Anat Perry; Michael Bang Petersen; Arathy Puthillam; Tobias Rothmund; Petra C Schmid; David Stadelmann; Augustin Stoica; Drozdstoy Stoyanov; Kristina Stoyanova; Shruti Tewari; Bojan Todosijević; Benno Torgler; Manos Tsakiris; Hans H Tung; Radu Gabriel Umbreș; Edmunds Vanags; Madalina Vlasceanu; Andrew J Vonasch; Yucheng Zhang; Mohcine Abad; Eli Adler; Hamza Alaoui Mdarhri; Benedict Antazo; F Ceren Ay; Mouhamadou El Hady Ba; Sergio Barbosa; Brock Bastian; Anton Berg; Michał Białek; Ennio Bilancini; Natalia Bogatyreva; Leonardo Boncinelli; Jonathan E Booth; Sylvie Borau; Ondrej Buchel; Chrissie Ferreira de Carvalho; Tatiana Celadin; Chiara Cerami; Hom Nath Chalise; Xiaojun Cheng; Luca Cian; Kate Cockcroft; Jane Conway; Mateo A Córdoba-Delgado; Chiara Crespi; Marie Crouzevialle; Jo Cutler; Marzena Cypryańska; Justyna Dabrowska; Victoria H Davis; John Paul Minda; Pamala N Dayley; Sylvain Delouvée; Ognjan Denkovski; Guillaume Dezecache; Nathan A Dhaliwal; Alelie Diato; Roberto Di Paolo; Uwe Dulleck; Jānis Ekmanis; Tom W Etienne; Hapsa Hossain Farhana; Fahima Farkhari; Kristijan Fidanovski; Terry Flew; Shona Fraser; Raymond Boadi Frempong; Jonathan Fugelsang; Jessica Gale; E Begoña García-Navarro; Prasad Garladinne; Kurt Gray; Siobhán M Griffin; Bjarki Gronfeldt; June Gruber; Eran Halperin; Volo Herzon; Matej Hruška; Matthias F C Hudecek; Ozan Isler; Simon Jangard; Frederik Jørgensen; Oleksandra Keudel; Lina Koppel; Mika Koverola; Anton Kunnari; Josh Leota; Eva Lermer; Chunyun Li; Chiara Longoni; Darragh McCashin; Igor Mikloušić; Juliana Molina-Paredes; César Monroy-Fonseca; Elena Morales-Marente; David Moreau; Rafał Muda; Annalisa Myer; Kyle Nash; Jonas P Nitschke; Matthew S Nurse; Victoria Oldemburgo de Mello; Maria Soledad Palacios-Galvez; Yafeng Pan; Zsófia Papp; Philip Pärnamets; Mariola Paruzel-Czachura; Silva Perander; Michael Pitman; Ali Raza; Gabriel Gaudencio Rêgo; Claire Robertson; Iván Rodríguez-Pascual; Teemu Saikkonen; Octavio Salvador-Ginez; Waldir M Sampaio; Gaia Chiara Santi; David Schultner; Enid Schutte; Andy Scott; Ahmed Skali; Anna Stefaniak; Anni Sternisko; Brent Strickland; Jeffrey P Thomas; Gustav Tinghög; Iris J Traast; Raffaele Tucciarelli; Michael Tyrala; Nick D Ungson; Mete Sefa Uysal; Dirk Van Rooy; Daniel Västfjäll; Joana B Vieira; Christian von Sikorski; Alexander C Walker; Jennifer Watermeyer; Robin Willardt; Michael J A Wohl; Adrian Dominik Wójcik; Kaidi Wu; Yuki Yamada; Onurcan Yilmaz; Kumar Yogeeswaran; Carolin-Theresa Ziemer; Rolf A Zwaan; Paulo Sergio Boggio; Ashley Whillans; Paul A M Van Lange; Rajib Prasad; Michal Onderco; Cathal O'Madagain; Tarik Nesh-Nash; Oscar Moreda Laguna; Emily Kubin; Mert Gümren; Ali Fenwick; Arhan S Ertan; Michael J Bernstein; Hanane Amara; Jay Joseph Van Bavel

doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac093

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Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

Journal article

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Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

Tomislav Pavlović, Flavio Azevedo, Koustav De, Julián C Riaño-Moreno, Marina Maglić, Theofilos Gkinopoulos, Patricio Andreas Donnelly-Kehoe, César Payán-Gómez, Guanxiong Huang, Jaroslaw Kantorowicz, …

PNAS Nexus, Vol.1(3), pgac093

2022-07

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac093

PMID: 35990802

Abstract

COVID-19

public health measures

hygiene

social distancing

policy support

At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic is crucial to improving future interventions. In this study, we applied machine learning on the multinational data collected by the International Collaboration on the Social and Moral Psychology of COVID-19 ( = 51,404) to test the predictive efficacy of constructs from social, moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, as well as socio-demographic factors, in the attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic. The results point to several valuable insights. Internalized moral identity provided the most consistent predictive contribution-individuals perceiving moral traits as central to their self-concept reported higher adherence to preventive measures. Similar results were found for morality as cooperation, symbolized moral identity, self-control, open-mindedness, and collective narcissism, while the inverse relationship was evident for the endorsement of conspiracy theories. However, we also found a non-neglible variability in the explained variance and predictive contributions with respect to macro-level factors such as the pandemic stage or cultural region. Overall, the results underscore the importance of morality-related and contextual factors in understanding adherence to public health recommendations during the pandemic.

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Title: Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning
Creators: Tomislav Pavlović - Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb, Croatia
Flavio Azevedo - Friedrich Schiller University Jena
Koustav De - University of Kentucky
Julián C Riaño-Moreno - Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia
Marina Maglić - Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb, Croatia
Theofilos Gkinopoulos - Crete University Press
Patricio Andreas Donnelly-Kehoe - Department of Research and Development, Kozaca SA, Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina
César Payán-Gómez - Universidad del Rosario
Guanxiong Huang - City University of Hong Kong
Jaroslaw Kantorowicz - Hague Institute for Global Justice
Michèle D Birtel - University of Greenwich
Philipp Schönegger - University of St Andrews
Valerio Capraro - Middlesex University
Hernando Santamaría-García - Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
Meltem Yucel - Duke University
Agustin Ibanez - Adolfo Ibáñez University
Steve Rathje - University of Cambridge
Erik Wetter - Stockholm School of Economics, Department of Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Technology (House of Innovation)
Dragan Stanojević - University of Belgrade
Jan-Willem van Prooijen - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Eugenia Hesse - University of San Andrés
Christian T Elbaek - Aarhus University
Renata Franc - Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb, Croatia
Zoran Pavlović - University of Belgrade
Panagiotis Mitkidis - Aarhus University
Aleksandra Cichocka - University of Kent
Michele Gelfand - Stanford University
Mark Alfano - Macquarie University
Robert M Ross - Macquarie University
Hallgeir Sjåstad - Norwegian School of Economics
John B Nezlek - Uniwersytet SWPS
Aleksandra Cislak - Uniwersytet SWPS
Patricia Lockwood - University of Oxford
Koen Abts - KU Leuven
Elena Agadullina - National Research University Higher School of Economics
David M Amodio - University of Amsterdam
Matthew A J Apps - University of Birmingham
John Jamir Benzon Aruta - De La Salle University
Sahba Besharati - University of the Witwatersrand
Alexander Bor - Aarhus University
Becky Choma - Metropolitan University
William Cunningham - University of Toronto
Waqas Ejaz - National University of Sciences and Technology
Harry Farmer - University of Greenwich
Andrej Findor - Comenius University Bratislava
Biljana Gjoneska - Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts
Estrella Gualda - Universidad de Huelva
Toan L D Huynh - University of Southampton
Mostak Ahamed Imran - University of Dhaka
Jacob Israelashvili - Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko - Erasmus University Rotterdam
André Krouwel - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Yordan Kutiyski - Kieskompas (Election Compass), Amsterdam, Netherlands
Michael Laakasuo - University of Helsinki
Claus Lamm - University of Vienna
Jonathan Levy - Aalto University
Caroline Leygue - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Ming-Jen Lin - National Taiwan University
Mohammad Sabbir Mansoor - Tribhuvan University
Antoine Marie - Aarhus University
Lewend Mayiwar - BI Norwegian Business School
Honorata Mazepus - Leiden University
Cillian McHugh - University of Limerick
Andreas Olsson - Karolinska Institutet
Tobias Otterbring - University of Agder
Dominic Packer - Lehigh University
Jussi Palomäki - University of Helsinki
Anat Perry - Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Michael Bang Petersen - Aarhus University
Arathy Puthillam - Anusandhan Trust
Tobias Rothmund - Friedrich Schiller University Jena
Petra C Schmid - ETH Zurich
David Stadelmann - University of Bayreuth
Augustin Stoica - National School of Political Science and Public Administration
Drozdstoy Stoyanov - Medical University Plovdiv
Kristina Stoyanova - Medical University Plovdiv
Shruti Tewari - Indian Institute of Management Indore
Bojan Todosijević - Institute of Social Sciences
Benno Torgler - Queensland University of Technology
Manos Tsakiris - Royal Holloway University of London
Hans H Tung - National Taiwan University
Radu Gabriel Umbreș - National School of Political Science and Public Administration
Edmunds Vanags - University of Latvia
Madalina Vlasceanu - Princeton University
Andrew J Vonasch - University of Canterbury
Yucheng Zhang - Hebei University of Technology
Mohcine Abad - School of Collective Intelligence, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, Morocco
Eli Adler - Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Hamza Alaoui Mdarhri - School of Collective Intelligence, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, Morocco
Benedict Antazo - José Rizal University
F Ceren Ay - Telenor
Mouhamadou El Hady Ba - Cheikh Anta Diop University
Sergio Barbosa - Universidad del Rosario
Brock Bastian - The University of Melbourne
Anton Berg - University of Helsinki
Michał Białek - University of Wrocław
Ennio Bilancini - IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca
Natalia Bogatyreva - National Research University Higher School of Economics
Leonardo Boncinelli - University of Florence
Jonathan E Booth - London School of Economics and Political Science
Sylvie Borau - TBS Education
Ondrej Buchel - Tilburg University
Chrissie Ferreira de Carvalho - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
Tatiana Celadin - University of Bologna
Chiara Cerami - Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori di Pavia
Hom Nath Chalise - Tribhuvan University
Xiaojun Cheng - Shenzhen University
Luca Cian - University of Virginia
Kate Cockcroft - University of the Witwatersrand
Jane Conway - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse
Mateo A Córdoba-Delgado - Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
Chiara Crespi - University of Pavia
Marie Crouzevialle - ETH Zurich
Jo Cutler - University of Oxford
Marzena Cypryańska - Uniwersytet SWPS
Justyna Dabrowska - Krakow University of Economics
Victoria H Davis - University of Toronto
John Paul Minda - Western University
Pamala N Dayley - University of California, Los Angeles
Sylvain Delouvée - Laboratoire de Psychologie : Cognition, Comportement, Communication
Ognjan Denkovski - University of Amsterdam
Guillaume Dezecache - Université Clermont Auvergne
Nathan A Dhaliwal - University of British Columbia
Alelie Diato - Cavite State University
Roberto Di Paolo - IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca
Uwe Dulleck - Queensland University of Technology
Jānis Ekmanis - University of Latvia
Tom W Etienne - University of Pennsylvania
Hapsa Hossain Farhana - National Institute of Traumatology & Orthopaedic Rehabilitation
Fahima Farkhari - Friedrich Schiller University Jena
Kristijan Fidanovski - University of Oxford
Terry Flew - The University of Sydney
Shona Fraser - University of the Witwatersrand
Raymond Boadi Frempong - University of Bayreuth
Jonathan Fugelsang - University of Waterloo
Jessica Gale - University of Canterbury
E Begoña García-Navarro - Centro de Estudos para a Intervencao Social
Prasad Garladinne - Indian Institute of Management Indore
Kurt Gray - University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Siobhán M Griffin - University of Limerick
Bjarki Gronfeldt - University of Kent
June Gruber - University of Colorado Boulder
Eran Halperin - Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Volo Herzon - University of Helsinki
Matej Hruška - Comenius University Bratislava
Matthias F C Hudecek - University of Regensburg
Ozan Isler - Queensland University of Technology
Simon Jangard - Karolinska Institutet
Frederik Jørgensen - Aarhus University
Oleksandra Keudel - Kyiv School of Economics
Lina Koppel - Linköping University
Mika Koverola - University of Helsinki
Anton Kunnari - University of Helsinki
Josh Leota - University of Alberta
Eva Lermer - FOM University of Applied Sciences for Economics and Management
Chunyun Li - London School of Economics and Political Science
Chiara Longoni - Boston University
Darragh McCashin - Dublin City University
Igor Mikloušić - Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Zagreb, Croatia
Juliana Molina-Paredes - Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
César Monroy-Fonseca - Boehringer Ingelheim
Elena Morales-Marente - Centro de Estudos para a Intervencao Social
David Moreau - University of Auckland
Rafał Muda - Maria Curie-Skłodowska University
Annalisa Myer - The Graduate Center, CUNY
Kyle Nash - University of Alberta
Jonas P Nitschke - University of Vienna
Matthew S Nurse - University of Canberra
Victoria Oldemburgo de Mello - University of Toronto
Maria Soledad Palacios-Galvez - Universidad de Huelva
Yafeng Pan - Karolinska Institutet
Zsófia Papp - Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Philip Pärnamets - Karolinska Institutet
Mariola Paruzel-Czachura - University of Silesia in Katowice
Silva Perander - University of Helsinki
Michael Pitman - University of the Witwatersrand
Ali Raza - University of Colorado Boulder
Gabriel Gaudencio Rêgo - Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie
Claire Robertson - New York University
Iván Rodríguez-Pascual - Centro de Estudos para a Intervencao Social
Teemu Saikkonen - University of Turku
Octavio Salvador-Ginez - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Waldir M Sampaio - Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie
Gaia Chiara Santi - Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori di Pavia
David Schultner - José Rizal University
Enid Schutte - University of the Witwatersrand
Andy Scott - University of Alberta
Ahmed Skali - University of Groningen
Anna Stefaniak - Carleton University
Anni Sternisko - New York University
Brent Strickland - Institut Jean Nicod
Jeffrey P Thomas - London School of Economics and Political Science
Gustav Tinghög - Linköping University
Iris J Traast - University of Amsterdam
Raffaele Tucciarelli - School of Advanced Study
Michael Tyrala - Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Nick D Ungson - Susquehanna University
Mete Sefa Uysal - Friedrich Schiller University Jena
Dirk Van Rooy - University of Antwerp
Daniel Västfjäll - Linköping University
Joana B Vieira - Karolinska Institutet
Christian von Sikorski - University of Koblenz and Landau
Alexander C Walker - University of Waterloo
Jennifer Watermeyer - University of the Witwatersrand
Robin Willardt - ETH Zurich
Michael J A Wohl - Carleton University
Adrian Dominik Wójcik - Nicolaus Copernicus University
Kaidi Wu - University of California San Diego
Yuki Yamada - Kyushu University
Onurcan Yilmaz - Kadir Has University
Kumar Yogeeswaran - University of Canterbury
Carolin-Theresa Ziemer - Friedrich Schiller University Jena
Rolf A Zwaan - Erasmus University Rotterdam
Paulo Sergio Boggio - Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie
Ashley Whillans - Harvard University
Paul A M Van Lange - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Rajib Prasad - Vidyasagar University
Michal Onderco - Erasmus University Rotterdam
Cathal O'Madagain - School of Collective Intelligence, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, Morocco
Tarik Nesh-Nash - Impact For Development, Casablanca, Morocco
Oscar Moreda Laguna - Kieskompas (Election Compass), Amsterdam, Netherlands
Emily Kubin - University of Koblenz and Landau
Mert Gümren - Koç University
Ali Fenwick - Hult International Business School, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Arhan S Ertan - Boğaziçi University
Michael J Bernstein - Pennsylvania State University
Hanane Amara - Department of Economics, Koc University, Sarıyer, Istanbul, Turkey
Jay Joseph Van Bavel - Department of Psychology & Neural Science, New York University, New York, NY, USA
Publication Details: PNAS Nexus, Vol.1(3), pgac093
Copyright: © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Academic Unit: Department of Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Technology (House of Innovation); Mistra Center For Sustainable Markets; House of Sustainable Society
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

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