Abstract
We present a simple dynamic model of entry and exit in a private equity market with heterogeneous fund managers, a depletable stock of target companies, and learning about investment profitability. Its predictions match a number of stylized facts: Aggregate fund activity follows waves with endogenous transitions from booms to busts. Supply and demand in the private equity market are inelastic, and the supply comoves with investment valuations. High industry performance precedes high entry, which in turn precedes low industry performance. Differences in fund performance are persistent, first-time funds underperform the industry, and the first-time funds that are raised in boom periods are unlikely to be succeeded by follow-on funds. Fund performance and fund size are positively correlated across private equity firms, but negatively correlated across consecutive funds by the same firm. Finally, boom periods can make "too much capital chase too few deals."