Abstract
In the immediate aftermath of World War II, millions of inner-German refugees were allowed to settle in the American occupation zone in Germany but not in the French occupation zone. Using a spatial RD framework, I estimate the persistence of the population shock over a 20-year-period. I find a discontinuity of 21.6% in population levels between the two zones in 1950 and a high persistence over time. In 1970, the discontinuity remains at 17.8%. The result provides evidence aganst theories of spatial population distributions based on locational fundamentals, but is consistent with random growth theories and theories of scale economies.