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Do Election Results Shape Legitimacy Perceptions in Autocracy?
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Do Election Results Shape Legitimacy Perceptions in Autocracy?

Anastasiia Arbuzova
FREE Network Policy Brief Series, Forum for Research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE) Network
2026

Abstract

Political Economy Russia
Elections remain a central feature of many authoritarian regimes despite widespread manipulation and limited political competition. Using a survey experiment with a nationally representative sample of Russian voters, this study examines whether improving perceptions of legitimacy can help explain why autocrats hold elections. The results show that information about high turnout increases trust in government, while information about low turnout reduces it, with effects driven by government supporters and individuals who believe in election integrity. This suggests that authoritarian leaders may use elections and reported electoral outcomes strategically to reinforce legitimacy among their support base and manage public perceptions over time.
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