Abstract
The February 2026 conflict in the Persian Gulf and the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent European gas prices sharply higher, reviving questions about Europe’s energy vulnerability. While the EU successfully reduced its reliance on Russian gas after 2022, it has traded one dependency for another: globally traded LNG exposed to fragile shipping routes. We argue that dependence is not only a concern for energy security; it also creates decarbonization fragility — the risk that reliance on imported fossil fuels undermines the clean energy transition itself. Price spikes push producers toward coal, raise emissions, and give politicians reasons to delay climate action. The solution to both problems is the same: faster deployment of domestic clean energy, better electricity grids, and a coordinated EU industrial strategy. Reducing fossil-fuel demand at home is not only a climate goal — it is the most durable foundation for Europe’s energy security.