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New Techniques to Extract Market expectations from Financial Instruments
Working paper

New Techniques to Extract Market expectations from Financial Instruments

Paul Söderlind and Lars E.O. Svensson
Vol.1996(142)
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, 142, Stockholm School of Economics (SSE)/Economic Research Institute (EFI)
1996

Abstract

interest rates exchange rates inflation options forward rate curve risk neutral distribution E43 E52 G13
This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates and inflation. More recently, these methods have been refined to rely on implied forward interewst rates, so as to extract expected future time-paths. Very recently, methods have been designed to extract not only the means but the whole (risk neutral) probability distribution from a set of option prices.

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