Lars Bergman

From chapter 1: The plan of the study is as follows. The post-war development of Sweden’s energy consumption is described and analyzed in Chapter 2. The discussion is focused on the relation between Sweden’s GNP and her consumption of energy, that is, the energy intensity of Sweden’s GNP. The factors underlying the observed development of the energy intensity of Sweden’s GNP are identified and explanatory hypotheses are proposed. The present study primarily deals with the development of energy consumption patterns at given assumptions about growth of the economy and the prices of energy resources. In a more elaborate study the growth of the economy, energy supply conditions and energy consumption patterns should be regarded as interdependent phenomena. Thus, a discussion about these interdependencies is needed as a background for the present study. Chapter 3 is devoted to a brief discussion about the factors behind the long-run development of the prices of energy resources, and how changing energy prices affect the growth of the economy. This study is carried out primarily on the basis of a numerically formulated model of the Swedish economy. The choice of model is motivated in Chapter 4. That chapter also contains a discussion of some theoretical aspects of the model. The empirical version of the houshold consumption demand model used in this study is discussed as well. The model presented in Chapter 4 is constructed as a set of interrelated submodels. In Chapter 5, 6, and 7 the three submodels of particular interest for this study are discussed in greater detail. Thus, Chapter 5 deals with a model of all sectors which produce non-energy commodities (steel, paper, etc.) Chapter 6 treats a model of the Swedish electricity and heat supply sector, while a model of the Swedish residential heating sector is dealt with in Chapter 7. Results from simulations with the model system are presented and discussed in chapters 8, 9 and 10. In Chapter 8 four alternative strategies for the future nuclear power policy in Sweden are formulated. Under the assumption of given demands for electricity and heat the impact of each of these policy alternatives on the power and heat production sector is analyzed. The attention is focused on the choice of technology and the development of electricity and heat prices. Chapter 9 deals with the results obtained from simulations using the residential heating system model. It is shown how the profitability of different residential heating options, and thus the total energy demand for residential heating purposes, is affected by price variations for energy and energy conservation equipment. The allocation of energy conservation investments between different kinds of residences is also discussed. Moreover Chapter 9 deals with the impact on the residential heating sector of the above mentioned alternatives for the future nuclear power policy in Sweden. In Chapter 10 the attention is focused on the relation between the composition of final consumer demand and the demand for energy. Thus, in a first step the changes of commodity prices in response to assumed changes of energy prices are estimated. By means of the model of the household sector’s demand for commodities, the estimated price-changes are transformed into changes of the quantities demanded. Then, by means of the model of the production sectors, the changes in final demand for commodities are transformed into changes in the demand of energy. Chapter 11 contains a summary of the results of the study. In addition some conclusions about the flexibility of the energy consumption patterns are drawn. It is also discussed how the approach adopted in this study can be used in studies of other problems related to Sweden’s energy policy than those analyzed in this study.