Abstract
Sanctions imposed on Russia since 2022 aim to deter aggression and constrain its war capacity. While deterrence failed, they have limited Russia’s revenues, access to advanced technology, and financial flexibility, though their effects remain uneven and obscured by data manipulation. Conference discussions highlighted three conclusions: Russia’s short-term resilience increasingly relies on war spending and opaque financing that threaten long-term stability; inflation and credit distortions reveal deeper structural stress than official data suggest; and sanctions must be paired with large-scale, predictable Western support for Ukraine. A key policy option is the use of frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction, either through returns or collateralization, without breaching international law. The challenge is to ensure sanctions effectively constrain Russia while enabling Ukraine to prevail.