Russia’s renewed engagement in Africa, often mediated through paramilitary actors such as the Wagner Group, has introduced a new dimension of geopolitical competition in regions where Western development donors operate. This paper examines whether and how Western aid allocation responds to the involvement of Russian-affiliated actors in local conflicts. We combine geocoded conflict event data with subnational aid allocation data from Western bilateral donors and the World Bank to analyze donor responses across African regions. Using complementary event-study and panel fixed-effects approaches, we find that the first involvement of Russian-affiliated actors in a region is associated with a substantial decline in bilateral donor disbursements, while the World Bank increases both project presence and disbursements. Panel estimates further show that bilateral donors respond more negatively to Russian-affiliated violence than to conflict more generally, whereas the World Bank exhibits the opposite pattern.
- Retreat or Reengage? Western Development Aid Responses to Russian Conflict Involvement in Africa
- Maria Perrotta Berlin - Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition EconomicsLev Lvovkskyi - Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center
- Vol.2026(4)
- GODAD Working Paper; 4
- Geocoded Official Development Assistance Dataset (GODAD)
- 42
- Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics
- English
- Working paper