Anders Olofsgård

The European Union’s enlargement policy has re-emerged as a central geopolitical instrument in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine and sustained destabilization efforts in its neighbourhood. For Ukraine and Moldova, EU accession is no longer a distant aspiration, but an existential strategic choice tied to security, economic development, and democratic survival. At this year’s SITE Development Day, policymakers, researchers, and practitioners gathered to take stock of where the two countries stand on their accession paths, which challenges risk undermining progress, and what role the EU and international partners can play in sustaining momentum. This policy brief synthesizes key insights from the conference discussions, focusing on three interlinked dimensions of accession: economic preconditions and foreign financing, democratic resilience under hybrid threats, and human capital development.

Just weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the European Social Survey completed the 10th round of data collection on public attitudes and beliefs in Ukraine. This policy brief examines regional variation in liberal values such as attitudes toward democracy and the EU, based on that data. While respondents in Eastern Ukraine were more skeptical of democracy and EU integration, they did not consistently reject liberal social values to a greater extent than respondents in other parts of the country. The most striking divide however, lies in institutional trust, which was significantly lower in Eastern Ukraine. This suggests that trust in institutions, which may have been further negatively impacted by prolonged exposure to violence since 2014, underlie the observed regional differences in attitudes towards democracy and the EU. Understanding these differences is vital for policymakers navigating Ukraine’s reform and EU accession process.

We are at a critical juncture in the defense of Ukraine and the liberal world order. The war against Ukraine is not only a test of Europe’s resilience but also a critical moment for democratic nations to reaffirm their values through concrete action. This brief examines Western support to Ukraine in the broader context of international efforts, putting the order of magnitudes in perspective, and emphasizing the west’s superior capacity if the political will is there. Supporting Ukraine to victory is not just the morally right thing to do, but economically rational from a European perspective.

For Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, integration into the European Union (EU) is a pathway to modernization, economic development, and increased resilience against authoritarianism. At this year’s Development Day Conference, hosted by the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), policymakers, researchers, and experts convened to discuss the shared challenges, opportunities, and reforms required for these countries’ successful EU accession.

On 24 February 2022, Russia launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine, in clear violation of international law. This aggression represented an escalation of the conflict that began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and the onset of warfare in eastern Ukraine. The full-scale war has now persisted for almost three years and, regardless of near-term developments, has permanently altered Europe’s security landscape. The unequivocal response from the West—with extensive sanctions imposed on Russia alongside significant military and economic support for Ukraine—demonstrates a widespread recognition that Russia’s actions pose a threat not only to Ukraine but also to the entire democratic world order. In this context, it is crucial to understand that relative strength is paramount in any military conflict; thus, sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine are mutually complementary efforts. These measures must be directed simultaneously at reducing Russia’s capacity to wage war and at bolstering Ukraine’s resilience.

Den 24 februari 2022 attackerade Ryssland, oprovocerat och i strid med internationell rätt, Ukraina. Denna attack var en eskalering av det angrepp som började redan 2014 med annekteringen av Krim och krigföring i östra Ukraina. Det fullskaliga kriget har snart pågått i tre år och har, oavsett vad som händer i närtid, förändrat säkerhetsläget i Europa för lång tid framöver. Västvärldens tydliga respons med omfattande sanktioner mot Ryssland samt militärt och ekonomiskt stöd till Ukraina indikerar att de flesta inser att Rysslands agerande är ett hot inte bara mot Ukraina utan hela den demokratiska världsordningen. I detta sammanhang är det centralt att förstå att i en militärkonflikt är relativ styrka avgörande, därför är sanktioner mot Ryssland och stöd till Ukraina ömsesidigt kompletterande insatser. Ansträngningarna måste syfta till att både minska Rysslands förmåga att föra krig och samtidigt stärka Ukrainas motståndskraft.