Richard Friberg

We use quarterly micro data on capacity utilization among Swedish manufacturing firms to show that idiosyncratic factors are more important than aggregate influences in explaining variation in capacity utilization across firms and over time. Idiosyncratic does not mean unpredictable, however. A newsvendor model of optimal capacity predicts that higher demand uncertainty lowers expected capacity utilization, especially for high-markup firms. We find support for these predictions in data containing firm-specific, forward-looking measures of uncertainty: firms facing high uncertainty on average have seven percentage points lower capacity utilization than firms facing low uncertainty; among high-markup firms, the difference is nine percentage points.

We study how grocery prices paid by households respond to local economic conditions, using the 2014 oil price collapse as a regional unemployment shock in Norway and combining transaction histories for 100,000 households with weekly store-level price data. We derive an exact decomposition of the change in the average price a household pays, whose components, assigned to retailer pricing or distinct household behaviors, sum to the total causal effect when estimated by regression. Prices paid are procyclical: retailer price responses account for about ten percent of the decline, while the dominant channel — over half the total effect — is households timing purchases to temporary sales. The dominance of within-quarter timing implies that unit-value price indexes conflate retailer pricing with household behavior, increasingly so in downturns.

Consumer journalism guides purchasing decisions when consumers lack complete information about attributes such as price, quality, and location. We focus on consumer journalism in the grocery market, where it is too time consuming for consumers to check all prices in different stores. This makes it attractive for media to attract readers by publishing grocery price comparisons. Norway’s largest newspaper has published grocery price comparisons over more than 20 years. However, the comparisons appear only sporadically (a few times each year) and include a relatively small number of items. Despite this, our empirical analysis of the Norwegian grocery market reveals that these price comparisons have a significant impact on market performance. They intensify competition, leading to price reductions when market players anticipate upcoming comparisons. Conversely, after a comparison is published, prices increase. Remarkably, sporadic consumer journalism, offering snapshots of prices for a few products, thus has a significant impact on grocery chains’ competitive pricing behavior. Chains heavily utilize a win in a price comparison in their own advertising, further reinforcing the competitive impact of consumer journalism.

This paper examines how consumer price knowledge affects shopping behavior and the prices consumers pay in grocery markets. We combine survey-based price recall data from over 2000 Norwegian households — yielding over 70000 price recalls across two grocery chains and 24 products—with 18 months of of linked individual-level transaction histories. Better-informed consumers—those who recall prices more accurately—pay lower prices by timing purchases to coincide with sales. A 10 percentage point increase in price knowledge (approximately the interquartile range) is associated with a 13 percentage point reduction in prices paid. Our results provide direct support for the central mechanism in Varian’s (1980) model of sales: that informed consumers pay lower prices by exploiting temporary discounts. We also find that consumers who are more active in seeking information about prices have higher price knowledge. Taken together, and with the caveat that we are only considering consumer responses here, our results suggest that policies or tools that help consumers learn about prices may be effective in enhancing competition. Our findings also speak to a marketing literature that seeks to measure and explain consumer price knowledge. By linking survey data to actual shopping behavior, we contribute to this literature by demonstrating that shopping behavior and attitudes are stronger predictors of price knowledge than demographic characteristics.

Using quarterly micro data on capacity utilization among Swedish manufacturing firms, we show that idiosyncratic factors are much more important than aggregate influences in explaining variation in capacity utilization across firms and over time. Idiosyncratic does not mean unpredictable, however. A simple newsvendor model of optimally set capacity predicts that higher demand uncertainty lowers capacity utilization, especially for high-markup firms. We test these predictions using data that contain firm-specific, forward-looking measures of uncertainty. Firms in the top of the uncertainty distribution on average have seven percentage points lower capacity utilization than firms in the bottom. The fall in capacity utilization is more than double for firms in the top rather than bottom tercile of the markup distribution.

We study the global impact of rent extraction by countries that are in favorable locations to intermediate international trade. We propose a geography-based algorithm to measure land-sea distances and estimate a modified gravity trade model (1993-2016) which indicates that transit rents sharply lower trade. We use our model and simulations to gauge the welfare effects of transit rents. While transit countries benefit, general equilibrium price distortions impose substantial costs on all countries, interestingly also on those only indirectly affected (e.g. USA).

We use COVID-19 border closings and comprehensive store-level data on Norwegian alcohol sales to quantify the effect cross-border shopping of alcohol on sales volume and commodity tax revenue. Effects are large, for instance we estimate that commodity tax revenue for wine is about 20% lower because of cross-border shopping. Using product level data we establish that effects come from across all products rather than just a few, but effects are especially marked for bag-in-box wines. Neither availability of the exact same product in Sweden nor idiosyncratic product-level price difference with respect to Sweden has any marked effect on the impact of cross-border shopping on sales.

This study shows that firms regard stock price fragility - exposure to non-fundamental demand shocks stemming from the composition of equity ownership - as a salient corporate risk. We model ex-ante corporate responses to higher potential for future stock market misvaluation and then empirically document that within firm variation in equity fragility has effects in line with the model: higher fragility raises cash holdings and lowers investment. Multiple natural experiments support a causal interpretation of the results. The results are shown to be more prominent in the face of high uncertainty and financial constraints. The evidence presents a new dimension in the feedback channel which connects the stock market and corporate policies

We use grocery data from Norway and COVID-19 border closings to gauge the effect of cross-border shopping on commodity tax revenue. Detailed store-category level data identify differential treatment effects that depend on distance to Swedish stores. Economically significant effects extend to up to two hours’ drive from the border, and even further for prominent cross-border shopping products as beer, cigarettes and soda. Across all products, cross-border shopping decreases tax revenue from VAT by 3.6% at the national level. National commodity tax revenue from carbonated soft drinks (subject to a sugar tax) is reduced by 8.1% and from cigarettes by 11.9%.

This paper develops a framework using Monte Carlo simulation to examine risk/return properties of intra-industry product portfolio composition and diversification. We use product-level data covering all Swedish sales of alcoholic beverages to describe the risk profiles of wholesalers and how they are affected by actual and hypothetical changes to product portfolios. Using a large number of counterfactual portfolios we quantify the diversification benefits of different product portfolio compositions. In this market the most important reductions in variability come from focusing on domestic products and from focusing on product categories that have low variability. The number of products also has a large effect in the simulations, moving from a portfolio of 10 products to one of 20 products cuts standard deviation of cash flows in relation to mean cash flows by more than half. The concentration of import origins plays a minor quantitative role on risk/return profiles in this market.